Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 250710
SWODY3
SPC AC 250709

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK...

CORRECTED FOR MRGL DESCRIPTION

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

...TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY2-3 TIME FRAME.  AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO SRN OK IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL JET.  THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POST DRY LINE REGION OF TX BUT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST FOR
ROBUST ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONCENTRATED
ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SOUTH OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AND
SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015



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