Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 162053
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A
COUPLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL EJECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN IN OUR CWA THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE MAIN LOW STARTS LIFTING OUT...BUT RAIN SHOULD STILL
MAINLY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CHALLENGES ABOUND IN THE EXTENDED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED
INTO THE HUDSON BAY LOW.  ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.  SLOWED EXPANSION OF POPS NORTHWARD
SLIGHTLY...FOLLOWING THE 925-850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT
CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SEVERE.  RAISED FORECAST LOWS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING 925 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10C.

APPEARS AS THOUGH THE DRY SLOT MAY NOSE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE
TROWAL SETTING UP TO THE WEST...AND GRADUALLY ROTATING EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPS LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  FIRE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY..AND WITH
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. HAVE CHANGED WORDING TO
COVERAGE...BUT GIVEN LIGHT NATURE OF SHOWERS...KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA RESULTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  GFS SHOWS A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COOLER AIR WORKING SOUTH MID-WEEK...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH.  FOR NOW...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES UNTIL LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MG


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