Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 151652
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1152 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RELAX EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
WILL STILL TOP 20 MPH AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FURTHER EAST...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING RATHER SUBSTANCIAL MIXING
THIS MORNING...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 11 AM. DRY LAYER OF AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DROPS IN DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REACH 70. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS...HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MINNESOTA COUNTIES UNTIL SUNSET.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODELS INITIALLY INDICATED. SHOWERS ARE
STRUGGLING TO CONTINUE THE FURTHER NORTH THEY LIFT DUE TO DRY
AIR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT RAINS OUT OF THE 10K FT AGL CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BOTH BE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE TAKING THE SAME PATH. THE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE BEING EJECTED
NORTH BY A DIGGING ROCKY MOUNTAIN UPPER LOW. MODELS ALL SHOW LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK. BECAUSE OF THAT...AND DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO FEED IN FROM THE E/SE...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
MENTION WITH THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. BY THE END OF
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEING MORE DIRECTLY EJECTED FROM THE
DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM CARRIES A LITTLE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY...AND WITH
LAYERS BELOW BECOMING MORE MOIST...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE COMING UP ON MORE OF A SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST FETCH AND TARGETING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL TAKE A
LITTLE TIME TO GET IN TODAY BUT ONCE IT ARRIVES THE TRANSPORT WILL
BE FAIRLY RAPID. BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT LEVELS...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
STEADILY OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST
SOLID CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO BE THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE JAMES
VALLEY.

THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST...THE AREA WEST OF
HON/MHE/SPRINGFIELD...HAS NOT BEEN MAKING IT SO FAR. IT MAY NOT
UNTIL MIXING AND HEATING KICK WINDS UP LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THEN
IF IT DOES...THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST THE NOON ENDING TIME. AFTER DISCUSSION HAVE DECIDED TO SIMPLY
EXTEND IT UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE ABOVE REASONS. THAT IS...AM NOT
TEMPORARILY KILLING IT WITH A LATER START TIME...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG...AND THEY COULD CONCEIVABLY MIX DOWN
LOCALLY AT AN UNEXPECTEDLY EARLY TIME.

TEMPERATURE WILL BE MODIFIED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...TO
COOLER HIGHS AND WARMER LOWS. STILL IT WILL BE MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S...THEN LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SOME
LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD. A WEAKLY BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY FIGHT ANY DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS WHY POPS WILL
REMAIN LOW. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY BUT PLENTY TO INCLUDE THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING REMOTELY CLOSE
TO SEVERE. AS THINGS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN WILL RAISE HIGHS ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
POTENTIALLY LESS DENSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A BIT. BASICALLY LOOKING AT 60S BOTH DAYS WITH SPOTTY
LOCATIONS CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. NEITHER DAY IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MODELS HAVE
COME AROUND TO A MODERATE AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT SKIRTS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON
THIS MAINLY BECAUSE IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ENDS UP A LITTLE
WEAKER IT MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE CUT OFF LOW. SO
FOR NOW NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT. WILL BRING SOME
CHANCE POPS FOR RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THIS COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...WITH MOST
PRODUCING VIRGA...AND A FEW REACHING THE GROUND AS SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

CEILINGS WILL TRY TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE START OF A MOISTENING AND SLIGHT COOLING OF THE AIR TODAY
WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FAR SOUTHEAST BEING A
LITTLE LOWER ON THE FIRE DANGER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CONTINUED DRY VEGETATION WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

STRONG WINDS IN A COOLING REGIME MAY BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...



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