Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 011724 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN ACTIVE H5 PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS AND CANADA
TONIGHT. H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN MANITOBA...SWD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT. THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS HAS FORCED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
THE MOST PREVALENT COVERAGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IN
CHERRY...BROWN...BOYD AND KEYA PAHA COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...TO
NEAR NORTH PLATTE...TO EAST OF AINSWORTH. UNDER A THICK CANOPY OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 51 AT
VALENTINE TO 61 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES. FOR TODAY...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND NERN WYOMING...WILL PUSH EAST
INTO MINNESOTA TDY. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST
OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EWD
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE INVOF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN
NEBRASKA. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS INDICATING SOME SB CAPES OF 500
TO 700J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NOW CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
NORTH...SOME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL NOSE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 30S NOTED. AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ARE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND DRIER CONDS ARE EXPECTED. FOR
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EVENING HRS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SERN NEBRASKA...BECOMING ANCHORED ON THE NOSE OF THE
H85 JET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS DRIER AIR...WHICH
WILL BE PRESENT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY...SHIFTS NORTH INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
HOLD IN THE 40S WITH SOME LOWS AROUND 50 POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND
SERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THIS MORNING. WARM AIR SURGES NORTH FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEB. HIGHS SURGE INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 80S. DURING PEAK HEAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ZONAL/SLIGHT NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY
PUSH ACTIVITY TO THE EAST. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL WITH DEW PTS IN
THE 40S ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW BAND
OF NEARLY 2000 J/KG CAPE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST. MODEL BLEND SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY TO STRETCH FROM N CENTRAL TO SW NEB FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING 70S BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER 80S ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SIMILAR PARAMETERS FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR
DEW PTS AROUND 50. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE DUE TO THE BETTER MOISTURE.
STILL SOME UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE
THE ACTIVITY. IT MAY END UP DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA THEN MOVING
OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE IT GETS TOO ORGANIZED.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR NEXT WEEK. SLOW MOVING LARGE AREA OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AN INCH
OR MORE. THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND STALLS
OVER KANSAS THEN MEANDERS BETWEEN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW WAVES
EJECT FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS MID WEEK. EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAIN LOW MID WEEK.
WHILE NOT A WASH OF A WEEK...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS WITH AT
LEAST A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA ISOLATED WEAKLY ORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LARAMIE AND COLORADO
RANGES 18Z-21Z WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON 21Z-00Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.