Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 211100
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
500 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WITH RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
ISOLD CONVECTION AFT 18Z MAINLY OVR HIGHER TERRAIN AND NE NM WHERE
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE. SOME CONVECTION
MAY BE DRY WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 OR 45KT. BRIEF
EXCURSIONS TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MT OSCURATIONS IN CONVECTION
OTHERWISE VFR BEFORE 22/01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY SHOULD TONE DOWN
SLIGHTLY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TODAY VERSUS MONDAY...THOUGH
FAVORED AREA SHOULD BE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. WINDS ALOFT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER RIDGE PASSAGE AND
PICK UP WHICH WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EVEN MORE RESTRICTED TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
AS PRETTY HEALTHY DRY SLOT SETS UP OVER MOST OF STATE. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME COOLING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT MORE CHANGEABLE WX CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS NM BETWEEN LATE WED
AND SAT. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDELY SEPARATED THAN ON MON AND
MAINLY FOCUS ON THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST TO THE NE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND BE NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES.

RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW INTO THU. SFC WINDS WILL RESPOND BY ALSO INCREASING AND
PEAKING ON FRIDAY. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST WED PRODUCING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
THE SANGRES EAST TO THE TX BORDER. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
DIP PRETTY FAR S ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA EARLY THU BEFORE
SWINGING NE TOWARD W NM BY THU NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY THERE IS A
DEFINITE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT E TO SE SFC FLOW INTO NM IN
ADVANCE OF ITS ARRIVAL...THUS DEEP MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PLAYER WITH THIS FEATURE. SO AT LEAST AS IT LOOKS NOW THIS WX
SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE STATE...
THOUGH AT LEAST SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS A PRETTY GOOD
BET...PARTICULARLY WEST AND NORTH LATER THU INTO FRI. WITH AND
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER NM SATURDAY
ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE A FAST MOVER AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY EVENINGS CONVECTION HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH EXISTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY...THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE WEAK
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY MATERIALIZE. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY...WITH SOME OF THE WETTER CELLS IN THE
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH A
WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED
OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN...DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE
MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE VERY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH IT OUT OF THE REGION. IN FACT...WIND
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN
WHAT WAS INHERITED. THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO THE
MODELS INTENSIFYING A SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON/T APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS NOW
INDICATED FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT...SO
GENERALLY LOW POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER WITH
TEXAS. 00Z GFS LOOKS WINDY AND DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH IT/S
ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS A SHARP RIDGE/TROF PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH FRIDAY THE MOST
NOTABLE EXCEPTION DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...WHEN A FRONT WILL
BACK INTO THE REGION...VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

SPORADIC AND MOSTLY ISOLATED CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE OF A SUBSTANTIAL
DURATION. ON THURSDAY CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PERSIST 3-5 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE BELEN TO SOUTH OF
SOCORRO AREA...SO WILL BE MONITORING THIS TREND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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