Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 211156 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
656 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MORNING LIGHT SNOW...AND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON TOP THE
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. NICE LITTLE BAND OF SNOW UP
IN ND IS CONTINUING TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THIS MORNING. BAND SEEMS
TO BE SUPPORTED BY DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PER H7 2D
FRONTOGENESIS PROGS. ALSO SOME H3 JET SUPPORT. BAND IS INITIALLY
HAVING TO OVERCOME DRY LOW LEVELS PER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. BUT
SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL SEE A BIT OF SNOW...MAINLY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. VSBYS UP NORTH HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN BELOW 1SM.

THEN WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TOWARD FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
A SLAM DUNK TODAY LIKE YESTERDAY...BUT THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEEDED WEATHER ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER BETWEEN THE JAMES AND
MISSOURI RIVERS WHERE RH FALLS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT. MEANWHILE THE
WIND DURING MAX HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME GUSTS
TO 25 OR GREATER. EAST AND WEST OF THIS AREA IS WHERE FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS BECOME MURKIER. RH STAYS UP FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE
EAST...AND WEST RIVER FAVORS LOWER WINDS. BUT WITH GENERALLY DRY
FUELS STILL SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT...WILL CARRY VERY HIGH CWA WIDE IN
THE GRASSLAND FIRE STATEMENT. CONTEMPLATED A WIND ADVISORY
EAST...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT AN OVER ABUNDANCE OF
CAA TO HELP MIX DOWN WINDS ALOFT. BUT THAT SAID STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL STILL FACILITATE SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF PAINT TWO RATHER DIFFERENT PICTURES OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN THE OUT PERIODS. THE ECMWF /SUPPORTED
BY THE CANADIAN SOLUTION/ GENERATES SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY OVER THIS CWA. THE
ECMWF THEN GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE THE GFS/CANADIAN AND
ECMWF ALL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

SO FAR...EACH MORNING SINCE FRIDAY MORNING...THE LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AND
HAVE FAILED TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL AGREEMENT OR
SIMILARITY IN FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING. AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO VERY LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE OUT PERIODS.

SUPERBLEND POPS GUIDANCE APPEARS JUST AS ABYSMAL THIS
MORNING...WITH POCK-MARKS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOWING UP HERE
AND THERE. PERHAPS THE TIME-FRAME MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT
SEEING SOME RAINFALL IS THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME-FRAME. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS EQUALLY CHALLENGING IN THE OUT PERIODS AT
THIS TIME. STILL...IT SEEMS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE
COOLEST READINGS TO BE HAD BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
HAPPEN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WITH A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THERE IS SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WORKING DOWN ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS COULD
CAUSE CIGS AND/OR VISBIES TO BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY AT KMBG. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF 2500FT TO 4000FT AGL
STRATUS WORKING DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ269>271.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN







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