RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
000 FXUS63 KABR 251558 AAA AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 958 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009 .UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SKYCOVER AND WX/POP GRIDS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS ARE WORKING SOUTH TOWARD THIS FORECAST AREA...SO BOLSTERED SKYCOVER FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES AS WELL AS KEEPING HIGH SKYCOVER AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST 40 MPH SHOULD SUFFICE...WITH NO WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. REDUCED POPS/WX COVERAGE FROM NOW THROUGH 3 PM CST...AS ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWER ECHOES NOW SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AFTER 3 PM CST...ONLY CARRYING AN ISOLATED FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON PACE TO FINISH OUT THE DAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...PER PLENTIFUL CLOUDCOVER AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MAIN BAND OF ISENTROPIC FORCING HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IS RESULTING IN RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE I29 CORRIDOR. COLD ADVECTION HAS BEGUN...SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE SHORT LIVED. VISIBILITY UPSTREAM HAS BEEN ONLY MARGINALLY IMPACTED...1 MILE OR GREATER...SO EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH LATER TODAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AND HIGH CLOUDS. H85/925 COLD ADVECTION HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS TODAY...HOWEVER INTENSITY AND RELATED STRONG WINDS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE ADVERTISING WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS EARLIER THURSDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS. WILL BE UNDER WARM ADVECTION FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF AT 6-9C. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HONOR THE PAST RUNS...WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENTLY PROGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SPLIT...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE SPEED OF THE POSITIVE TILT TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EMPHATIC WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION. BUT THIS PROBABLY DOES NOT MATTER ALL THAT MUCH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEKEND LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE IT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK ABOUT RIGHT SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THERE EITHER. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS. KATY IS STILL MVFR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST. KATY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REDUCING VISIBILITY AS WELL. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE LOOPS THAT COULD REDUCE KABR TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DORN SHORT TERM...CONNELLY LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...KEEFE WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
