Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 042041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 430 PM EDT...THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAD REACHED 87 DEGREES. THIS WAS OUR WARMEST DAY SINCE
SEPTEMBER 6TH OF LAST YEAR BUT SHORT OF THE RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 4TH.
THAT RECORD IS 91 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1944.


TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY
AREAS....AND HAVE HAD ONE REPORT OF 90 DEGREES AT THE SITE IN HUDSON
NY! EVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN REPORTED TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WAS WERE VERY LOW...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S...TRANSLATING TO RH VALUES NC THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THIS IS
QUITE DIFFERENT FROM OUR MORE TYPICAL HEAT DURING THE SUMMER WHEN
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION (SCATTERED
SHOWERS) WAS WORKING TOWARD NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND THEREFORE
WILL ENTER INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PERHAPS HAMILTON COUNTIES
BEFORE DARK. SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKE. HOWEVER...WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES INTO EVENING.

MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LIMITED AND A LITTLE
CAP...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDER ACTIVITY
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP BACK TO THE 70S BY SUNSET.

A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND (AT TIMES) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DARK
AS WELL.

LATER TONIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WILL MOVE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...TOWARD THE
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND CAPITAL REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY...DUE TO VERY LOW DEWPOINTS (LIMITING MOISTURE)
IT NOW APPEARS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN A
NATURE (MORE NUMEROUS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY). MOST AREAS LOOK TO
RECEIVE UNDER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM THIS EVENING...COOLING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY DAYBREAK...MOST AREAS WILL BE DOWN TO THE
50S...EXCEPT AROUND 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...SLOWING AND WEAKENING DOWN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR REGION.

HIGHER DEWPOINTS (IN THE 50S) LOOK TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA OF THE
STALLED FRONT ON TUESDAY THUS THE SHOWER AND OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT
COULD ACTUALLY INCREASE A LITTLE...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE I-84
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
AND POINTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY.

CLOUDS LOOK TO DECREASE FROM ALBANY NORTH AS TUESDAY WEARS ON. ANY
THREAT FOR AN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY MIDDAY. RH
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOWER AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH...THERE COULD MORE CLOUDS WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL PRESS THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR REGION. THE SKY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WELL SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE. THE WHOLE REGION LOOKS DRY WITH COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S WELL
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE GREAT MAY DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
PROVIDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THIS SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...MID 60S TO LOWER
70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR OUR REGION. OVERHEAD...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MOVING TOO QUICKLY
AWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

BY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE RIDGE
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH BACK TO AT LEAST AROUND 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH IMPACTING THE CAROLINAS.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING FOR FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND LOOKS
SCATTERED...WITH DIURNAL HEATING BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
SHOWERS/CONVECTION AS THE REGION REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
FOR SATURDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
FOR SHOWERS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S...WITH LOWS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BUT KPOU IS EXPECTED TO STAY CLOUDY WITH A THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONTINUING AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING AT THE REQUEST OF THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT  CONTINUES AND THE
MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION. THIS RED
FLAG WAS ALSO EXTENDED TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL EXPIRE BY 800 PM.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME.

RH VALUES HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE
TEENS IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS HAVE JUST FALLEN SHORT OF
PERSISTENT 25 MPH...THOUGH THEY COULD STILL REACH THESE VALUES UNTIL
AFTER 600 PM.

AFTER THAT TIME...THE WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WILL BREEZE COULD PERSIST 5-10 MPH WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW
APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH
SOME LOCALITIES NOT PICKING UP ANY RAIN AND MANY AREAS RECEIVING
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...OVERNIGHT...BEST CHANCES SHIFT TO IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...THEN BY DAYBREAK...BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS COMES TUESDAY...AS WELL
CLOUDS. RH TO LOOKS TO VARY QUITE A BIT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...GETTING TO DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...BUT HOLDING IN THE 30S AND EVEN 40S FURTHER
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY TOWARD I-84.

THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIGHT...BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MOST
AREAS...5 TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF 25
MPH. FURTHER SOUTH...THE WIND WILL VARIABLE 5-10 MPH BECOME
NORTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
PARTIAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT AS RH VALUES SHOULD BRIEFLY RAMP UP TO
BETWEEN 75-90 PERCENT AND THE WIND LIGHT ALLOWING A LITTLE DEW TO
FORM. EACH AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR
LOWER.

THE WIND EACH AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE NORTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 15
MPH...WITH ANY GUSTS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH.

THE HAINES INDEX LOOKS VERY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

NO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THAT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ANY OUR RIVERS OR STREAMS AS THE AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



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