Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270831
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
231 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAINLY MAINLY EAST OF A PRYOR TO MILES CITY LINE
AS OF 08Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OUT
OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE RISING HEIGHTS
FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY BUT AS WE SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE NW
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
DEW PT SPREADS ARE MINIMAL IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF FOG THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
TODAY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO OUR WEST BUT HOLDING IN THE LOW 50S CLOSE
TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER.

POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY
EAST. THERE SEEMS TO BE A RISK OF AT LEAST SOME VALLEY FOG FROM
BILLINGS EASTWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE
TWEAKED FORECAST LOW TEMPS DOWN AND ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WX ON TUESDAY AS A WARMING TREND
CONTINUES. LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S TOMORROW.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER PERIODS. STRONG RIDGE WILL BE
IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. FAST MOVING
PACIFIC TROF WILL CRASH THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. KEPT LOW POPS IN
FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT LATEST RUNS KEEP MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA PUTTING OUR AREA IN THE MAINLY DRY AND
BREEZY PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN A FAIRLY FAST AND DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUNS ADVERTISED A COLD CANADIAN LOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISED RIDGING.
TODAYS RUNS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A FAST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THIS IS GENERALLY A DOWNSLOPE
PATTERN BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LESS STRONG AND
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS KEPT IDEA OF CLIMATOLOGY POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. STRONGER ENERGY STILL LURKS NOT TOO FAR
NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK SO STILL A CHANCE FOR A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO DEVELOP. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CONTINUE INTO MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG. BY 18Z ANY
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOG MAY REGENERATE MID TO LATE MONDAY
EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 039/073 047/077 048/067 044/070 044/071 046/068
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    11/U    11/B    22/T
LVM 061 033/073 042/072 041/064 038/067 041/065 041/065
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/T    11/U    11/B    22/T
HDN 060 034/074 040/078 048/068 044/070 045/072 047/069
    1/B 00/U    01/U    12/T    11/U    11/B    12/T
MLS 058 035/071 044/078 050/068 045/070 045/073 048/071
    1/B 00/U    00/U    12/T    11/U    11/B    12/T
4BQ 057 033/068 041/076 048/068 043/069 045/072 047/070
    3/W 00/U    00/U    12/T    11/U    11/B    12/T
BHK 053 032/067 039/072 045/066 042/068 044/070 046/068
    5/W 00/U    00/U    12/T    11/U    11/B    12/T
SHR 056 033/069 038/074 043/065 040/066 042/069 043/066
    2/W 00/U    01/U    12/T    11/U    11/B    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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