Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 031818
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS
TODAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SEA
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT
POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND. THE TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT FOR TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN DRY WITH MOISTURE BEING AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FEATURE.
KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND THERE HAS BEEN A TREND WITH MOISTURE EXTENDING FARTHER
WESTWARD AND TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY IN THE EAST SECTION WITH HIGHER POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON
CUMULUS OR HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
A SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT
OGB...POSSIBLY ALL TAF SITES...MAY BECOME SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES.

NAM/GFS BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS MAY LINGER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. AIR MASS REMAINS DRY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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