Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 061403
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.

LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT OUR EAST ZONES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS.

THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WCENT PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH AND WE DECREASE THE
POPS TO JUST 20-30 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY OR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KSEG LINE. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN.

MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MONRING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA HEADED TWD KMDT AND KLNS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS/ WILL SCOOT EAST OF THE REGION BY SHORTLY AFTER
16Z.

AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN


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