Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 050958
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
357 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST AFTERWARD. THIS WILL BEGIN A DRYING
OUT PROCESS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
ALAMOGORDO NORTH AND EAST. DRYING WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE WEST TO NEAR EASTERN
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
COULD KICK OFF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EAST OF EL PASO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS LOW
MAY HAVE BEEN COMBINATION OF TWO LOWS ON MONDAY. AT ANY RATE IT
SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST SHORTLY. TROUGH ROTATING NORTH
AROUND THE LOW MAY HAVE HELPED KICK OFF THE STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY
(ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE ENTERING THE EASTERN CWA). LARGE DRY SLOT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THOUGH STRONG JET MAX HAS DISAPPEARED WITHIN
THIS SLOT. MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW MOVING TO SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF EL PASO BY
PRIME HEATING TIME. AT LOW LEVELS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...PUSHING MOISTURE EAST AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS.
HAVING SAID THAT...MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE STILL DECENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND PERHAPS PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. KEPT
POPS IN FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE SAC MTNS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN. NAM12 SHOWS...WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY...IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

DRYING WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS WE ENTER A STRETCH OF DRY AND
BREEZY DAYS. EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BREEZY. NEXT UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE TO NW NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND GIVE THE GILA REGION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANIES
THIS LOW AND SHOULD PRODUCE WINDY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN GFS
AND ECMWF MAKE THIS UNCERTAIN. LATEST GFS BRIEFLY BRINGS DRY LINE IN
AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT THEN PUSHES IT TO OF JUST
EAST OF OUR CWA BORDER TUESDAY. ECMWF PUSHES DRY LINE ALL THE WAY TO
THE ARIZONA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND BASICALLY KEEPS THE MOIST AIR
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUE/WED STILL JUST BEYOND
MY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/12Z-06/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 16Z WITH 26015G25KT COMMON THRU 03Z WHEN
SFC WINDS WILL DROP BACK BELOW 12 KTS. EXPECT FEW-SCT060-080 ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
HALF OF REGION TO INCLUDE KTCS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE TODAY
ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. MIN
RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR THE LOWLANDS LATER TODAY BUT
STAY ELEVATED IN THE 30 PERCENT PLUS RANGE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. MIN RH VALUES THEN DROP OFF ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AT ALL
LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO STAY OUT OF RED FLAG STATUS FOR
THE MOST PART. BY FRIDAY AND CERTAINLY COME SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACKS TO OUR NORTH.
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING AT CRITICAL LEVELS RED FLAG CONDITIONS
COULD BE MET AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE LOOKS TO
RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIP
WILL ONCE AGAIN ENTER THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 81  58  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           79  55  84  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              80  50  82  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              80  53  84  55  81 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              58  39  62  41  62 /  30  20   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   78  50  82  52  79 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  45  73  46  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  48  84  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  48  82  48  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  59  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               79  52  83  53  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            82  55  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              80  58  80  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  81  54  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            80  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  57  83  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           80  48  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   81  49  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  54  83  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               79  57  83  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 69  46  71  46  70 /  30  20   0   0   0
MESCALERO               69  43  70  44  69 /  30  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                68  45  70  44  68 /  30  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 72  41  73  43  72 /  40  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               79  47  81  49  78 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               80  48  83  49  80 /  20  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  42  72  44  71 /  30  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  45  74  46  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   75  42  80  45  78 /  30   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              73  40  79  39  76 /  30   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  47  79  48  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  80  49  83  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  49  83  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  49  82  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              78  49  79  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY







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