Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 042001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
301 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN FROST TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND PCPN CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS COMING
INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHICH WILL AFFECT PCPN POTENTIAL SO WILL STICK WITH A
BLEND AND NATIONAL GUIDANCE.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SETTING UP
MODEST RETURN FLOW. FAR NE FA WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THIS AND
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WILL ISSUE
A FROST ADVISORY. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO
MINIMIZE FROST POTENTIAL.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH
VALUES HOLDING IN THE MID 20S AND WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH STRONGER
GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL NEED TO
ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE WITH
FAIR AMOUNT OF SOLAR AND WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

MODELS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ON LIFTING PCPN NORTHWARD INTO THE FA
TUESDAY NIGHT SO LIMITED BEST CHANCES TO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW TRACKS DIFFER SOME STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE
FOR RESPECTABLE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. IT WILL NOT RAIN STRAIGHT THROUGH HOWEVER
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. T CHANCES
STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
WAVES ROLLING THRU THE FA. THE TAIL END OF THE FIRST ONE WILL BE
DEPARTING THE FA TO THE EAST THU NIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOWER
PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS. NEXT ONE LOOKS TO MAINLY ARRIVE LATE SAT
NIGHT AND COULD AFFECT THE FA INTO MONDAY. LIKE THE FIRST WAVE THIS
ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING BETTER PCPN AMOUNTS WITH IT...IF IT
HOLDS TRUE. STILL A WAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT A COOLER PERIOD WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE KFAR AREA...OTHERWISE JUST
FEW-SCT CUMULUS ELSEWHERE. THESE ARE FAIRLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS SO
WILL NOT AFFECT VFR OPERATIONS. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SOUTH-SE WINDS PICKING UP ON TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THIS AREA TO
AROUND 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. RH ONCE AGAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW...DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN DOWN THROUGH BARNES COUNTY. RH WILL ALSO BE LOW
FARTHER EAST...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE A BIT LIGHTER. NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND INTO THE RRV THOUGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-
     017-024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI





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