Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 211026
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
326 AM PDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BROUGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR JOHNSONDALE...AND TO THE PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB AREA IN SOUTHERN
KERN COUNTY IN THE SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE GRAPEVINE.

THE NEXT TROUGH WAS ALONG 136W THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST AS UNSTABLE AS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WFO
HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA. 500-MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND -21 C BOTH AFTERNOONS...WARMING TO AROUND -18 C
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS OR EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SHORT-WAVE WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL AS LOW AS
7000 FEET NEAR YOSEMITE...AND TO AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...
ALLOWING AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MONDAY AS
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS YET
ANOTHER TROUGH TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MTNS. AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE STORMS COULD LAST WELL INTO THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-21       98:2009     50:1900     64:2012     36:1968
KFAT 04-22       96:2012     57:2010     66:2012     33:1968
KFAT 04-23      100:1910     56:1961     62:2012     39:1958

KBFL 04-21       99:2009     57:2010     64:2009     33:1904
KBFL 04-22       98:2012     58:2010     67:2012     34:1920
KBFL 04-23      100:1910     59:1960     62:2012     33:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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