Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 261259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
859 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH ELONGATED TROF
OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PLACES
THE OHIO VALLEY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. EMBEDDED S/W AND SFC
LOW TO TRACK OFF TO THE SE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN TODAY.

RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA LEAVING CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW A BROKEN SKY THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE THE GFS SOUNDING HAS A FEW CU FORMING. THINK THE TRUTH WILL
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE... PARTLY CLOUDY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM
KILN THIS MORNING SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING AT 850 MB. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A TAD
ACROSS SOME AREAS BUT CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE
FORMATION OF FROST. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 30S.


MODELS SHOWING A S/W ROTATING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS S/W IS WEAKENING AND
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST WITH BEST MOISTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40.

SYSTEM TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. BEYOND THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH READINGS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AT
ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORK IN FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 12 KNOTS
TODAY...SUBSIDING UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFTER 12Z MONDAY AT CVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.