Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 070830
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BUT
IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS AGAIN APPEAR TOO COOL ON HIGHS TODAY AND WILL
RAISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS HAS WORKED WELL IN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH INTRODUCING POPS AT THAT TIME...AND RAMPING
THEM UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND LOOK LIKELY. WHILE THERE WILL POTENTIALLY
BE DRY PERIODS...STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MOST OF THE TIME.

CONSENSUS TEMPS AGAIN APPEAR A BIT TOO COOL PER LATEST TRENDS AND
HAVE COMPENSATED FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE OVER IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY LIFT AN
UPPER LOW NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 12Z SUNDAY TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW AT
THIS TIME OPENS UP AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN A CENTRAL CANADIAN
TROUGH. THINGS CHANGE AFTER THAT AS THE 00Z GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER
LOW PIVOT SOUTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE RESULTANT TROUGH. THIS
LOW THEN SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS FAIR CLOSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM AND
ITS COLD FRONT AS THEY BOTH BRING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA AND COMBINE
WITH WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS WELL
AS THEY APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD LINGER AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER AND THERMAL
PROFILES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH
MONDAY BUT ONLY 60S BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT SHOULD FALL FROM THE 60S
ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 070900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A DRY AIR MASS
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR TODAY. THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN PICK UP
TO AROUND 6-8 KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

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