Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 011953
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO
KENTUCKY AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA AND
LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN SOME
PLACES. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DUE TO
THE SLOW EXIT...EAST KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH INCREASE IN LL FLOW MOVING FROM SW TO THE NE...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE A GREAT DISPARITY IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORE OPEN
VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY.

SHORT TERM MODELS BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA BY 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER WITH PROFILES BECOMING SATURATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. THROUGH DUE TO THE DRY PATTERN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...WENT WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS SEEM TO KEEP THE MAIN AXIS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD BUT
WILL STILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LOST IN DAYTIME HEATING WILL DETRACT FROM THE
INSTABILITY BUT STILL WILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS WILL ALSO BE THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL SET UP WILL BE IN QUESTION BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH
A CONSENSUS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND NOSING NORTHEAST INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES
BOTH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT 12Z FRIDAY
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
WILL TRACK TO OUR NW...WITH THE FRONT NOT PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF KY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
THAT OCCURS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...WITH
LI/S DOWN TO -2 OR -3. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS
AT OR BELOW 85H ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SPC HAS PLACED THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE IN THE NORTH WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE BETTER.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OCCURS IN ADVANCE
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DECREASING MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE STANDARD
MODEL BLENDED APPROACH YIELDS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AS
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM. SOME SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY SME AND LOZ TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT SHOULD HOLD
OFF TILL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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