Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011826
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
226 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES HAVE TURNED TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN ARE ALMOST UNIFORMLY AT 80 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
KBYX RADAR IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES...HOWEVER THERE ARE LONG
STREAKY RETURNS ORIENTED E/W DUE TO CHAFF.

AN AREA OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
BRIDGE A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...REINFORCING A MODERATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER PENINSULAR FLORIDA. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE SHORT AND MID RANGE PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEARLY NIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
RELATIVELY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW RIDGES TO A SMALL
DEGREE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL POP NUMBERS WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE MOST RECENT TABULAR EXTENDED GFS MOS. BEYOND
MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. KEPT THE MENTION OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE EACH PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ACCELERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH. AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL
CRAFT MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ELSEWHERE. MODERATING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
ACCELERATE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
SAGGING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST
BREEZE WILL EXTEND TO WELL ABOVE 4000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1961...1.70 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
APRIL FIRST IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  81  72  83 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  70  83  73  84 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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