Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 020821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
321 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STATE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS.

AGAIN...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...BUT THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON IF ANY INSTABILITY CAN BECOME SURFACE-BASED. ALL MODES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN
STRONGER STORMS AS WELL.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL TAKE IT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AGAIN...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...SO CONDITIONS
COULD BE BREEZY/WINDY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER THE GULF BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH THE STALLED FRONT
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RE-ENTER THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE NICELY AND
KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE STATE.

MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME BACK SIGNIFICANTLY
WETTER...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  64  70  38 /  30  50  50  10
CAMDEN AR         80  66  76  45 /  30  20  40  10
HARRISON AR       73  61  61  35 /  30  60  40   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  65  71  42 /  30  30  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  65  73  42 /  30  30  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  67  77  45 /  30  20  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      76  65  70  41 /  30  30  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  61  64  35 /  30  60  50  10
NEWPORT AR        76  65  70  38 /  30  40  50  10
PINE BLUFF AR     79  66  75  43 /  30  30  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  64  69  39 /  30  40  30  10
SEARCY AR         77  65  72  40 /  30  40  40  10
STUTTGART AR      78  65  74  42 /  30  30  40  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...65




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