Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 061635
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1235 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LINGER JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1231 PM WED...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EARLY AFTERNOON FROM DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL RISE TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR LOW AND ASSCTD SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
WILL APPROACH FROM S TONIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDINESS FOR ERN NC. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR SRN COASTAL AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS FROM UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING NEAR
THE BAHAMAS OFF THE FL COAST.

00Z MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SE COAST AS IT MOVES NNW THU...APPROACHING
THE CAROLINAS. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO LIKELY SLOW AND STALL OFF THE SE
COAST INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS...THEN PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW...WITH SC MENTION OF TSTMS. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW LINGERING OFF THE SE COAST SAT AND SUN...BEFORE LIKELY
WEAKENING AND MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST LATE SUN AND MON...THEN
FINALLY PUSHING NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
WITH SC TSTMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND ROUGH
SURF/HIGHER THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THOUGH ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS COULD BE FELT ACROSS EASTERN NC IF TRACK AND/OR STRENGTH
CHANGES.

GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORTING THE WARMEST TEMPS MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...LIKELY
PUSHING THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. SHOULD START TO DRY OUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH NWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM LOW PRES DEVELOPING
NEAR BAHAMAS HAS SPREAD OVER AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SOME SCU CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW BUT SHOWER THREAT WILL REMAIN NEAR COAST THROUGH 12Z.
SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING E-NE 5 KT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
THU INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THU...BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1234 PM WED...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN LOOSE GRADIENT. IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WINDS ARE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.

DEVELOPING LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM S WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN PRES
GRAD OVER AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 15-20 KT SRN HALF OF WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

SEAS 1-3 FT THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER SRN WATERS THIS
AFTN AND ALL WATERS TONIGHT. HEIGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT EXPECTED OUTER
PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY THU MORNING...AND SCA
POSTED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING NEAR
THE BAHAMAS OFF THE FL COAST. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY.
LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NNW THU...THEN SLOW/STALL OFF
THE SE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE ALONG THE COAST LATE SUN AND MON.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THU...ESP SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST E/NE WINDS 10-20KT THU...THEN
E/SE 10-20KT FRI AND SAT...BECOMING SSE SUN. EXPECT TIGHTER
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...SO THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS 20-30KT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME AND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW. SCA
WILL START OFF THE PERIOD THU AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 9 FEET SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND 3 TO 5 FEET NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CGG/JBM/CQD


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