Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 210457 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/13


.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/



SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...A STRONG LOBE OF VORT ENERGY STRETCHING SOUTH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SWING EAST...PUSHING A SURFACE
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE FA ATTM EAST OF THE FA INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND...MOVING FROM OVER EAST TX TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AL (A BIT FARTHER EAST IN THE GFS).
COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE FA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH. TEMPS
TONIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE
FA...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND. FOR TUESDAY...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE FA...DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FOR THE DAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. /16

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR EASTERN STATES...ACTUALLY MORE OF A MASSIVE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST STATES WHILE UPPER RIDGING ADVANCES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF/LOW SENDS A
WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AN 850 MB FLOW THAT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT
FOR A MODEST PEAK OF 25-30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 100 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1000
J/KG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER
INLAND. CONSIDER THIS...MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AT THIS POINT. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND TO NEAR 60 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER 80S.
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
WEAKENS WHILE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LONGWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST STATES STUBBORNLY
PERSISTS. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS IS
ABSORBED BY THE UPPER TROF/LOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MEANWHILE
QUASHING THE REMNANT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND WEAKENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY THEN
THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN MAY SEE A WARM FRONT ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROF/LOW FINALLY MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER WELL DEFINED UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY AT LEAST SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS RETURN BY MONDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. /29

MARINE...AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FA TONIGHT...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE MARINE FA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY CUTTING OFF
THE FA OFFSHORE FLOW. A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS RESTORED
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST FROM THE NORTH.
RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY BECOMING
LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY FROM A SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL RESTORE ONSHORE FLOW LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  77  57  82  65 /  00  05  05  20  40
PENSACOLA   58  76  62  81  68 /  00  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      60  74  63  80  69 /  05  05  05  10  30
EVERGREEN   51  76  52  84  60 /  00  05  10  10  30
WAYNESBORO  49  76  53  82  62 /  00  05  05  20  40
CAMDEN      50  75  52  83  60 /  05  05  05  20  30
CRESTVIEW   54  77  53  83  62 /  05  05  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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