Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 190826
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
620 PM CHST SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS...WITH 5-6 FT SEAS AT THE IPAN BUOY. SATELLITE SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA WITH A
WEAK BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST EAST OF KOSRAE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN A BAND BETWEEN 10N AND 15N AS FAR WEST AS 152E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
TUE-WED AS THE EAST-WEST ZONE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 10N AND 15N EXTENDS
WESTWARD INTO THE MARIANAS AND PERSISTS THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
RESULTS FROM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 8-
10N FROM WEST OF YAP ALL THE WAY TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...WITH A
WEAK CIRCULATION POSSIBLY SETTING UP SOUTH OF GUAM AROUND THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY
ON...BUT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
RISE...REACHING 7-9 FEET WED-THU. RIP RISK SHOULD STAY AT MODERATE
BUT MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGH AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF
MICRONESIA FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD ACROSS POHNPEI STATE AND THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. MODEST CONVERGING SURFACE
WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR CHUUK THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POHNPEI THRU MONDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH CAN BE
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE NEAR 8N165E.
GENTLE WINDS SOUTH OF THIS CIRCULATION ARE GOING TO PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE ISLAND THRU MONDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST...FRESH TRADE
WINDS CONVERGING TOWARD THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION NEAR MAJURO THRU WEDNESDAY.

MOST MODEL OUTPUTS STILL AGREE ON GRADUALLY BRINGING THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD...WHILE TRACKING THE CIRCULATION WESTWARD ALONG THE TROUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRYER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
CHUUK AND POHNPEI NEAR MIDWEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...WET WEATHER
CAUSED BY CONVERGING WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT
OVER KOSRAE ON TUESDAY. AFTER MIDWEEK...WEAKER WINDS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER NEAR THE
ISLAND. THINGS NEAR MAJURO MIGHT REMAIN UNSTABLE AFTER MIDWEEK AS
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SLIDES
WESTWARD FROM EAST OF THE DATE LINE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION ABOVE DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN.

THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE SAME NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA IS SEEN NEAR 5N SOUTH OF KOROR AND YAP. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE MAINLY
ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS BOTH PLACES. AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD...CONVERGING MODERATE WINDS NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS NEAR THESE TWO
LOCATIONS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN



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