Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 031939
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 111200Z

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/NRN MEXICO NEWD TO THE PLAINS ON D3/TUE. ENHANCED
LOW TO MIDLEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
ENCOURAGE STRONG SWLY/WLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NM
AND FAR W TX TUE AFTERNOON. WARMING/DRYING DUE IN PART TO THESE
WINDS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL PROBABLY RENDER FINE FUELS UNRECEPTIVE FOR MUCH OF THIS
AREA...AND THEREFORE NO CRITICAL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR
D3/TUE.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON D3/TUE SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY NWD ON D4/WED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN U.S. AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CONUS. AT THIS TIME...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS APPEAR TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE N OF
CRITICALLY LOWERED RH VALUES OVER NM AND FAR W TX WED AFTERNOON.
PRIOR PRECIPITATION FROM D2/MON AND D3/TUE SHOULD ALSO MOISTEN FINE
FUELS FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION...SO NO DELINEATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE
FOR D4/WED.

FROM D5/THU THROUGH D8/SUN...THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ITS EVENTUAL PROGRESSION EWD TO VICINITY
OF THE PLAINS AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODIC
EPISODES OF ENHANCED LOW TO MIDLEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A SPEED MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED
LOW MAY ACT TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SWRN U.S. AND SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM D5/THU THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A COMBINATION OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH LOWERED RH VALUES APPEARS TO BE ON BOTH D5/THU
AND D6/FRI ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ON D7/SAT
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR IF FINE FUELS WILL BE ABLE TO DRY
SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS THESE REGIONS GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THAT
SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL NOT INTRODUCE CRITICAL
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SPECIFIC DAY. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN FUELS
DRYING ENOUGH AND BECOMING RECEPTIVE TO BURN...THEN DELINEATIONS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR LATER THIS WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND/OR SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FUTURE OUTLOOK.

..GLEASON.. 05/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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