Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 031546
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID 031700Z - 041200Z

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR A PORTION OF ERN LOWER MI.
SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO
CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. INCREASES SLIGHTLY. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS ERN MI...RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. GIVEN A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK PER
AHPS OBSERVED PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...FINE FUELS ARE GENERALLY DRY.
THESE COMBINED FACTORS SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS ERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER EXPECTED WINDS
PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA.

..GLEASON.. 05/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0357 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN
CANADA LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES IN ZONAL FLOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
WILL BUILD EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE IN THE
VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...BUT BEGIN TO SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MENTIONED AREA. DESPITE RELATIVE-HUMIDITY
VALUES BEING NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE WINDS /AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS/ COUPLED
WITH DRY FUELS WILL ACT TO OFFSET THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
YIELDING ELEVATED-TO-LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AT THIS TIME...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF
OVERLAP BETWEEN CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST WINDS
PRECLUDES CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER DELINEATION.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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