Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 041341
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELLE ISLE...DCR STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD POSE
MINIMAL FIRE RISK PRIMARILY DUE TO GREEN UP. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...DRAGGING A FLAT SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE DISTRICTS NORTH OF RICHMOND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............9   14  14  14  20  20  20
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................71  74  76  77  77  79  78
RH..................49  43  39  36  36  34  35
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   6   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  15  15  15  15  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 2.1 3.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  10  10  12  13  13
LVORI...............2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................9   27  35  41  46  38  41
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........6   6   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....8   19  30  41  48  55  61

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1400 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............25  25  25  30  30  30  37  37  37  31  31  31
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................76  75  72  70  68  68  67  66  66  65  65  64
RH..................40  45  53  57  61  61  63  65  65  68  70  73
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   7   6   6   5   5   6   7   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.1 2.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  12  10  8   8   8   10  13  15  15  15  14
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................8   7   4   4   3   3   4   9   10  10  10  9
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....44  27  13  9   6   5   7   11  15  14  12  10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............19  19  19  18  18  18  23  23  23  36  36  36
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................63  64  66  69  73  76  78  80  81  81  83  82
RH..................75  75  70  63  55  50  47  44  42  42  40  41
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  15  15  13  10  9   8   8   9   10  12  13
LVORI...............4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.................12  12  12  19  21  21  25  29  35  39  46  54
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....10  10  10  13  14  15  19  25  33  40  49  60



FORECASTER...MONTEFUSCO/GINGRICH
REQUESTED BY...ERIK MOLLEEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.BELLE.01/AKQ


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