Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 191559
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SHEEP BASIN...GNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
959 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON APRIL 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND FAIRLY LIGHT. A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF DRY
                    LIGHTNING.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................24 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...THEN INCREASING TO
                    15000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VENT RATE...........150,000 KNOT-FEET (EXCELLENT)

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37.
RH..................MAX 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 4 TO 6 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF DRY
                    LIGHTNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68.
RH..................MIN 12 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 15000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 2 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 12 KNOTS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
VENT RATE...........180,000 KNOT-FEET (EXCELLENT)


$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...LUIS CASTILLO
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150419.SHEEP.01/EPZ






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