Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261608
1107 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

                    VALID APRIL 26 THROUGH MAY 1


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level low is currently located near the Four
Corners, and will continue to slowly move towards the WGRFC
area the next few days. This storm system will be partially
responsible for the upcoming potential severe weather and
significant flood event across the region. Abundant atmospheric
moisture is already in place across most of the region...with
dew points across Central and East Texas in the 70s. As a result
of this moist an unstable air, showers and thunderstorms have
already developed across portions of southeast Texas, and also
across New Mexico and Colorado. This trend is expected to continue
throughout the day, as the upper level low approaches from the west.
Current rainfall amounts are averaging less than 0.50 inch per hour,
however as this activity continues to become more widespread, higher
amounts can be expected through tomorrow.

By tomorrow, the upper low is forecast to move over the Texas
Panhandle and eventually over Oklahoma by early Tuesday. Between
this time frame, very heavy rainfall is expected over a good
portion of North and East Texas. Precipitation amount of up to 2.00
inches are possible for areas mainly along and east of I-35. This
activity may cause some additional minor to moderate flooding across
the lower Sabine and Neches River systems.

By Tuesday, Precipitation is expected to slowly come to an end,
as the upper low continues moving over Oklahoma and eventually
weakens. Some wrap-around rainfall is possible across northern
Texas late Tuesday, but no additional significant precipitation is
expected after Tuesday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of the
Texas Panhandle and North Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast
for areas along and south of I-20 and also eastern New Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.50 inch
are forecast from the Texas Panhandle down to portions of
southeast Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for portions of
Central Texas. Most of the significant precipitation is expected
for areas along and east of I-35.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (35%), and about 9% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little
over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(58%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas are at or
near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation
events have brought drought relief to parts of far west Texas, south
Texas and roughly the southeast third of the state. The rainfall
expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area could produce
some runoff over east central and northeast Texas where the heaviest
rainfall is forecast. No significant runoff is expected over the
remainder of the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding is occurring or forecast to occur in the Brazos,
Neches, Sabine, and San Antoinio River basins. Minor flooding is
forecast at the Guadalupe River at Victoria (VICT2) and Moderate
flooding is forecast at the Guadalupe River at Dupont (DUPT2).
Additional rainfall is expected in southeast Texas in the next two
days that could cause moderate flooding in the lower Neches and
Sabine River basins.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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