Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 041926
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU SHORT TERM...WITH SIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN REGARDS TO DVLPG LOW MOVING
INTO THE SRN ZONES FROM THE TROPICS. WILL POPULATE LATEST GRIDS
WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE 12Z GFS THRU 18Z TUE...THEN 12Z ECMWF
THEREAFTER.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN SHORT TERM IS COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF NE
COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHEST SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHUD
BE RESTRICTED TO THE COOLER NT1 WATERS...AND THUS HAVE USED THE
10M WINDS AS LESS MIXING IS EXPECTED AT THE SFC DUE TO MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS. MAX WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE. FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS NT1 WATERS TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NRN NT2 WATERS TUE
NIGHT INTO THU.

IN THE EXTENDED...MAIN CONCERN IS REGARDING DVLPG LOW EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SRN ZONES DURING THE LATE WED INTO THU TIME FRAME.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS STILL SUGGEST LOW DVLPG OFF FL COAST WED AND
SLOW MOVEMENT NWRD TOWARDS THE SRN OFFSHR WATERS WED AND WED
NIGHT. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON TRACK OF LOW BEGINNING THU
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN ZONES. GFS IS FURTHEST W WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE THE UKMET IS
FURTHEST E WITH THE LOW AND TRACKS IT E OF THE OFFSHR WATERS.
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE AS IT IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE UKMET. WITH THE UPR RIDGE BUILDING TO THE N...AND TRYING TO
BUILD TO THE W OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL...PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR THIS PACAKGE...WHICH HAS SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKING W TOWARDS THE COAST THEREAFTER AS IT
FEELS THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE TO THE N. GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO
QUICK IN TURNING THE LOW FURTHER W AND INLAND OVER S CAROLINA THU
NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE UKMET SEEMS TOO FAR E. AS FOR
STRENGTH...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND KEEP WINDS BELOW GALE
FORCE ATTM. GFS STILL INDICATING STRONG GALES IN THE SRN ZONES THU
AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE UKMET ALSO KEEPING WINDS SUBGALE.


.SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.
WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS FROM 12Z WNA THRU 18Z TUE...THEN 12Z
ECMWF THEREAFTER.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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