Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261555
TXZ000-OKZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS.

SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32870056 34709979 33449718 30789792 31759948 32870056



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