Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 192037
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA. CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT JUST BEYOND
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BORDER...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN ANDERSON AND LEON
COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THAT.
SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS
EXIST ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THIS WILL YIELD A LOW AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THIS
REGION THROUGH SUNSET AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER. WILL MENTION ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE THE LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS. MONDAY
WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND
LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 70S. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BENEFIT FROM SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

AS WE HAVE MENTIONED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST DUE THE FAST
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT IS JUST UNABLE TO TIME THE
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WELL ENOUGH FOR ANY CONSISTENCY AND IT SEEMS
EVERY MODEL RUN JUST YIELDS A DIFFERENT RAINFALL FORECAST. THERE
IS SOME CONTINUITY REGARDING AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THAT TRACKS
THROUGH OKLAHOMA TUESDAY...BUT THE TIMING RANGES FROM EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING PER THE ECMWF TO LATE TUESDAY EVENING ON THE NAM.
EITHER WAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THE AIRMASS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS WILL CONTAIN
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...SO ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD
BE THE RESULT. WILL SHOW SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IF MODELS GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING...THESE CAN BE RAISED/LOWERED. THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO ADVERTISE IN THE
PUBLIC PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE TUESDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS MUCH WARMER AND
GENERALLY NEAR 60 DEGREES.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE A DRY LINE MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG
IT TO IMPACT OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BOTH OF THESE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL BUMP POPS
UP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO 30-40 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE DRY
LINE WILL LIKELY BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN DUE TO MODEL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
POPS AT 30 PERCENT AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY...BUT ON FRIDAY ALL OF
THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD REPRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS AREA WIDE. BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK LIKE THE DAYS WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH MORE CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE FRIDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/
A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING A DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE METRO-AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO THE WEST AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. A DECK OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS FORMED BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL IMPACT THE DFW AREA SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP BY 20Z...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING AS A NARROW
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD. SPEEDS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND
10 KT BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION MONDAY MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  72  53  74  61 /   0   0   0  10  20
WACO, TX              48  72  50  74  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
PARIS, TX             48  70  48  73  55 /  10   0   0  20  30
DENTON, TX            48  71  50  73  59 /   5   0   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          49  71  50  73  59 /   5   0   0  20  30
DALLAS, TX            53  73  54  75  62 /   0   0   0  10  20
TERRELL, TX           52  72  51  74  61 /   5   0   0  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         51  72  53  75  61 /   5   0   0  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            49  73  53  76  62 /   5   0   0  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     48  71  50  74  60 /   5   0   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.