Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 162319 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...IFR AND MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR OF
PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRACKS ON THE STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THESE STORMS WILL NOT AFFECT THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FOR KACT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST THAT MAY RESULT IN NEW
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AIRPORT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS AROUND 08-09Z AT
KACT AND 09-10Z IN THE METROPLEX. MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 2 KFT AROUND MIDDAY AND
THEN VFR IS EXPECTED BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL PLACE A
VCTS IN THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF KDFW BEGINNING 18/00Z.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS HAS RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST OF I-35. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN A SOME FLOODING ISSUES
IN A FEW SPOTS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREA WIDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVERALL AREAL
COVER TO BE LESS SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...EXPECT DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  78  64  81  63 /  50  50  60  40  20
WACO, TX              64  78  62  79  61 /  60  50  60  40  30
PARIS, TX             62  77  64  77  60 /  30  40  60  40  30
DENTON, TX            62  77  61  80  59 /  50  50  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          62  77  62  79  60 /  50  50  60  40  20
DALLAS, TX            64  79  64  81  63 /  50  50  60  40  20
TERRELL, TX           64  78  64  80  61 /  50  50  60  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         64  78  64  80  62 /  60  40  60  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  63  79  59 /  60  60  60  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  77  60  80  57 /  50  50  40  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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