Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 040006
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TO
AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS A
SWATH OF GULF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY
A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KTS. AS A
RESULT...SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
MONDAY MORNING AROUND 11Z. IT APPEARS THAT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE STRATUS DECK AND MAY
ONLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FOR A BRIEF TIME. REGARDLESS...CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS POSSIBLE.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER
SUNSET...A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD HELP
BRING STRATUS UP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT US TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE TOMORROW AND THE CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE ADVANCES AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT SOME 20
PERCENT POPS WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO BOWIE LINE.

AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WEST WITH MUCH
LESS AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY MAY...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
COLORADO...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA
BY NEXT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP US IN MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS MAY END UP BEING 2 TO OVER
3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS
WEST OF I-35 ARE STILL IN DROUGHT AND THE LAKES ARE MUCH IN NEED
OF RAIN. SOILS ARE SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AND LAKES DO NOT NECESSARILY NEED THE RAIN. SOME FLOODING
IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEK BUT IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. IF THE FORECAST PANS
OUT...SOME RIVER FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR ON PARTS OF THE
TRINITY...SABINE AND SULPHUR RIVERS.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  82  63  78  66 /   5   5  10  50  70
WACO, TX              63  81  63  79  67 /   5   5  10  50  60
PARIS, TX             60  80  61  79  64 /   5   5  10  40  50
DENTON, TX            62  81  63  77  65 /   5   5  10  50  70
MCKINNEY, TX          62  80  62  78  65 /   5   5  10  50  70
DALLAS, TX            64  83  64  78  67 /   5   5  10  50  70
TERRELL, TX           62  82  63  79  65 /   5   5  10  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         62  82  63  79  66 /   5   5  10  50  50
TEMPLE, TX            63  82  63  79  67 /   5   5  10  50  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  80  62  76  64 /   5   5  20  60  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

77/25



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.