Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 160454 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS
AND SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW
MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO WACO AROUND 10Z AND INTO THE METROPLEX AN
HOUR OR SO LATER. SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT WACO THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SEND SOME
LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIKELY
RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CHANCE BY EARLY
EVENING THAT SCATTERED STORMS MAY GET CLOSE. HAVE NARROWED THE
WINDOW FOR VCTS AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS TO 23-03Z TOMORROW
EVENING. SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...

AFTER REVIEWING 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...WENT AHEAD WITH A QUICK
FORECAST UPDATE TO CHANGE POPS AROUND A BIT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT CONVECTION INITIATION
WILL OCCUR WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 BY 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY GROW UPSCALE
INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINEAR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER INITIATION. THIS
STORM MODE IS SUPPORTED BY MODELS INDICATING MODEST MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...A DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF CELL MERGERS AND THE RESULTANT
UPSCALE GROWTH OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS INTO CLUSTERS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MODELS ADVERTISING ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS AT
THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...FAVORING LOCALLY STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND 1 INCH HAIL. THE WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR. IF THE MCS REMAINS ACTIVE AND ORGANIZED A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET...FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP FROM 03
TO 06Z. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35...AND IF OUR MCS REMAINS NEARBY AND SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED...THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE NEW UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE MCS PROMOTING TRAINING OF STORMS. IF THIS
CONTINUED FOR A FEW HOURS...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE MCS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A
HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING THREAT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST YET. IT
MAKES SENSE FOR THE MCS TO FALL APART BY MIDNIGHT BECAUSE THE MCS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WELL ORGANIZED IN THE FIRST PLACE.

WITH ALL THIS SAID...WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED STILL
HOLDS TRUE...A WELL ORGANIZED MCS MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
COULD STILL DIVERT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS WE MAY NOT SEE MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
STORMS WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS PROMISING
HOWEVER...SO KEPT POPS IN THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. DID LOWER POPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THESE AREAS APPEAR TO REMAIN THE MOST STABLE
AND FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER FORCING/LIFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DROPPED POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR THESE AREAS FOR NOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW AND WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE TIMING OF WHEN AND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
SETS UP COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE WILL CERTAINLY
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO AREAS WHERE STRATUS ARRIVES BEFORE PEAK
COOLING. FOR NOW THINK THAT THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
/LOW TO MID 60S/ WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND TO GATESVILLE TO CENTERVILLE LINE. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS.

FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON....THINK MAX TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S DESPITE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE FORECAST WAA. AS IT
PERTAINS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS...THERE ARE SEVERAL
COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT COULD ESSENTIALLY MAKE OR BREAK THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
THE FIRST WOULD CERTAINLY BE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
APRIL SUN...WOULD CERTAINLY EXPECT AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35...TO SEE PERIODS OF MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. THIS WOULD HELP TO
BOOST INSTABILITY VIA DIABATIC HEATING. IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE A
BIT LONGER THAN THOUGHT...NOT ONLY WOULD THE ABILITY TO INCREASE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BECOME HINDERED...BUT MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY MAY BE TOO HIGH.

THE SECOND CAVEAT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL MCS ALONG THE
GULF COAST /AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE TTU WRF AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE
LATTER MAY BE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE COARSER
MODEL/. REGARDLESS...THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD EFFECTIVELY DISRUPT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX AND WOULD LOWER THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...IT APPEARS THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND SWING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. IN
TERMS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED
WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG CAP SEEMS TO SUPPORT A MULTICELLULAR MODE
TO CONVECTION...SHOULD IT DEVELOP. THIS MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL. STORM
MOTIONS APPEAR TO BE SLOW AND WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING +2SD...A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT IF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WE WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING....ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND....THE GFS HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN TOWARDS THE EARLY PORTION WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THE PACIFIC FRONT NUDGES EASTWARD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ZONES ON FRIDAY
MORNING. THE TIMING OF THIS WOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY
MAY COMPLICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IF
STORMS ARE WIDESPREAD...THIS MAY EFFECTIVELY WORK OVER THE
ATMOSPHERE AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...THE THREAT
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST. THE DETAILS OF THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD COVER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DEPARTS THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  77  65  79  62 /   5  40  60  50  40
WACO, TX              58  76  64  77  60 /  10  50  60  50  50
PARIS, TX             56  77  61  78  61 /   5  30  30  50  50
DENTON, TX            58  77  64  77  59 /   5  40  50  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          58  77  64  76  60 /   5  30  50  50  40
DALLAS, TX            61  78  63  78  63 /   5  40  60  50  40
TERRELL, TX           58  77  65  78  63 /   5  40  60  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         58  76  64  78  62 /   5  50  60  50  50
TEMPLE, TX            62  76  64  78  61 /  10  60  60  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  76  62  76  58 /  10  60  50  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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