Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 170454 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. TIMING THESE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING BUT WILL
PREVAIL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING 07-09Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 2
KFT BY MIDDAY AND THEN VFR CIGS BY 20-21Z. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FROM 18/00-06Z. HOPEFULLY THE TIMING OF STORMS CAN
BE NARROWED SOME MORE AS WE ASSESS THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF TODAY/S STORM COMPLEXES. SOME OF THE STORMS TOMORROW
COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. THE MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
THAT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING LEFT SUBSIDENCE AND
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY RECOVER QUICKLY AS MODELS INDICATE A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WEST OF ONGOING CONVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING QUITE A BIT HANDLING
THE COVERAGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION...SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER 6
HOURS OR SO FOR HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE TO CATCH UP WITH THE SHORT
TERM DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONSEQUENCES OF ALL OF THE ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS...SOMEWHAT
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO LOWERED
POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AS A RESULT.

DID NOT REMOVE POPS ALL TOGETHER BECAUSE ONE OF THE CONSEQUENCES
OF HAVING AN OUTFLOW COOLED LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS A STEEPENING
OF THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TEND TO ASCEND OVER THE CWA
AS A RESULT OF THIS OUTFLOW COOLED AIR...AND MAY CAUSE SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ORGANIZED IF IT
DEVELOPS...BUT COULD NOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST KNOWING THAT A
LOW-LEVEL JET WAS GOING TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SENDING WARM
MOIST AIR ASCENDING OVER A COOL AIR-MASS AT THE SURFACE.

ON FRIDAY MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL HAVE LIFT ONCE AGAIN OVER
LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONCE
AGAIN ADVERTISE THIS AREA AS BEING THE MOST LIKELY FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE THAT MODELS
AGREE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG IS THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA TOMORROW...SO IF NOTHING
DEVELOPS IN OUR CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WILL BE PAYING CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE DRYLINE TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN ORGANIZE ALONG
THAT FEATURE AND MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS.

THINK THAT THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF STORMS COULD PLAY OUT IN A
VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO TODAY. CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35...AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST
DUE TO COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. THE FORECAST FOR CAPE AND SHEAR IS
OF SIMILAR STRENGTH TO TODAY...SO EXPECT A MULTI-CELLULAR STORM
MODE TO DOMINATE...ASSUMING STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM
THE DRYLINE LIKE THE 00Z NAM ADVERTISES. WE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE
TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ONCE THE HIGH-RESOLUTION SUITE
OF MODELS INGESTS THE NEW ENVIRONMENTAL DATA FROM THIS EVENINGS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS A REALLY
GOOD PLACE TO START.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS HAS RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST OF I-35. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN A SOME FLOODING ISSUES
IN A FEW SPOTS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREA WIDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVERALL AREAL
COVER TO BE LESS SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...EXPECT DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  78  64  81  63 /  30  30  60  40  20
WACO, TX              63  78  62  79  61 /  40  50  60  40  30
PARIS, TX             63  77  64  77  60 /  30  30  60  40  30
DENTON, TX            62  77  61  80  59 /  30  30  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          62  77  62  79  60 /  30  30  60  40  20
DALLAS, TX            63  79  64  81  63 /  40  30  60  40  20
TERRELL, TX           63  78  64  80  61 /  50  30  60  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         64  78  64  80  62 /  70  30  60  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  63  79  59 /  30  50  60  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  77  60  80  57 /  40  50  40  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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