Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 171138 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
638 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES ABOUND FOR TODAY REGARDING CIGS TRENDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND TIMING OF ANY SHRA/TSRA. IFR CIGS HAVE
AFFECTED WACO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHILE
REMAINING OUT OF DFW IN JUST ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION. IF ANYTHING...
IT APPEARS SOME LOWER CIGS WILL FILL IN BY 13Z ACROSS DFW WITH
MVFR/TEMPO IFR THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO VFR
CATEGORY AFTER MIDDAY. AS FOR CONVECTION...TIMING WAS MOVED UP
2-3 HRS PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND START TRIGGERING SHRA/TSRA
WELL SW OF ALL AIRPORTS BY 18Z...WITH STORMS MOVING NE ACROSS THE
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z TODAY...BEFORE LIFTING NE AWAY FROM THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE YET TO DETERMINE A MORE REFINED
WINDOW FOR STORMS WITH LATER FORECASTS LIKELY DETERMINING THOSE
SHORTER...HIGH-CONFIDENCE WINDOWS.

WINDS WILL PREVAIL S/SE AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY 4-7 KTS TONIGHT. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS ONLY LEND TO
CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS AT WACO BY 08Z SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT LOWER
CIGS OUT AT DFW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LIGHT FLOW...MIXING
FROM LIFT AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DOMINATED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A LLJ OF 30-40KTS IS HELPING TO
RECHARGE THE LOW-LEVELS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ADDITIONAL WARM
ADVECTION ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE LINEAR MCS
THAT STRETCHES FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST
TEXAS HAS MAINTAINED A NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY...THUS EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY WILL MISS NORTH TEXAS ENTIRELY AS IT INSTEAD TRANSITS
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL AGAIN BE TOO FAR WEST TO
BE OF CONSEQUENCE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR FOCUS TODAY
WILL BE ON THE NEXT SUBTLE IMPULSE ROUNDING THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING IN
VICINITY OF DEL RIO...THE RESULTING CONVECTION THEN SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL FAVOR A MORE EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY...IMPACTING WATER-LOGGED AREAS ACROSS EWX AND HGX
COUNTY WARNING AREAS. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INVADE. WITH NO OTHER SURFACE FOCUS...
THE EXTENT OF THE RESULTING COLD POOLS WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY BECOMES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WOULD
APPEAR TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...MLCAPE VALUES WILL
EASILY EXCEED 1000J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE BULK OF THE CWA WILL BE
BENEATH THE DIFFLUENT ZONE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION AN
APPROACHING JET STREAK. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE
TODAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
AND MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORM CHANCES. ZONAL FLOW
WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL RIPPLES MAINTAINING RAIN
CHANCES.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  64  81  61  81 /  40  60  30  20  10
WACO, TX              79  62  79  60  82 /  50  60  40  20  10
PARIS, TX             77  63  76  60  76 /  40  60  50  40  20
DENTON, TX            76  60  80  57  78 /  40  60  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          76  61  79  57  79 /  40  60  30  30  10
DALLAS, TX            78  64  81  62  80 /  40  60  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           77  63  80  61  79 /  40  60  40  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         78  63  79  62  81 /  40  60  40  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            79  62  79  61  84 /  60  60  40  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  60  82  56  81 /  50  50  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.