Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300347
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1047 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO BELOW 5 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE NORM
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH BEGIN TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN
MANY AREAS. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY SLOWLY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE.

BY LATE SUNDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP A LEE
SIDE LOW IN PLACE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THIS SHOULD PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE UPTICK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S. THIS
INITIAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MID WEEK WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO
NORTH TEXAS. AS OF NOW...THE DRYLINE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
WELL WEST OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED. THE BEST FORCING AND STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE
MID WEEK TIMEFRAME WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RESPECTABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. CURRENT FORECAST WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS MAINLY WEST LATE
MONDAY EVENING AND AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS MID WEEK.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  79  57  81  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              48  79  50  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  77  55  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            48  78  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  78  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  80  59  81  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  78  55  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  78  57  80  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            50  78  54  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     47  78  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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