Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 300456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD
TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH...AFW...FTW AND DFW COULD TEMPORARILY SEE AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY
IN SOUTH FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT WILL REACH WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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