Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 152055
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD COVER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DEPARTS THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW AND WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE TIMING OF WHEN AND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
SETS UP COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE WILL CERTAINLY
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO AREAS WHERE STRATUS ARRIVES BEFORE PEAK
COOLING. FOR NOW THINK THAT THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
/LOW TO MID 60S/ WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND TO GATESVILLE TO CENTERVILLE LINE. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS.

FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON....THINK MAX TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S DESPITE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE FORECAST WAA. AS IT
PERTAINS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS...THERE ARE SEVERAL
COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT COULD ESSENTIALLY MAKE OR BREAK THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
THE FIRST WOULD CERTAINLY BE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
APRIL SUN...WOULD CERTAINLY EXPECT AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35...TO SEE PERIODS OF MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. THIS WOULD HELP TO
BOOST INSTABILITY VIA DIABATIC HEATING. IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE A
BIT LONGER THAN THOUGHT...NOT ONLY WOULD THE ABILITY TO INCREASE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BECOME HINDERED...BUT MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY MAY BE TOO HIGH.

THE SECOND CAVEAT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL MCS ALONG THE
GULF COAST /AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE TTU WRF AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE
LATTER MAY BE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE COARSER
MODEL/. REGARDLESS...THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD EFFECTIVELY DISRUPT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX AND WOULD LOWER THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...IT APPEARS THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND SWING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. IN
TERMS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED
WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG CAP SEEMS TO SUPPORT A MULTICELLULAR MODE
TO CONVECTION...SHOULD IT DEVELOP. THIS MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL. STORM
MOTIONS APPEAR TO BE SLOW AND WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING +2SD...A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT IF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WE WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING....ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND....THE GFS HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN TOWARDS THE EARLY PORTION WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THE PACIFIC FRONT NUDGES EASTWARD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ZONES ON FRIDAY
MORNING. THE TIMING OF THIS WOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY
MAY COMPLICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IF
STORMS ARE WIDESPREAD...THIS MAY EFFECTIVELY WORK OVER THE
ATMOSPHERE AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...THE THREAT
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST. THE DETAILS OF THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
POSITION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A TAD TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH IT
SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH
BOTH APPEAR TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
FARILY WET AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT DRY.


15-BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOUTHWEST OF A KGVL /GAINESVILLE/ TO KTYR
/TYLER/ LINE AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WACO AROUND 08Z...AND INTO THE METROPLEX
BY 10Z. CEILINGS MAY GO IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT
WACO...AS INDICATED BY THE TEMPO 4SM BR BKN008 IN THEIR TAF.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AT WACO BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THOUGH BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD FOR
ALL BUT THE DFW TAF...THERE WILL BE MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AREA WIDE AS THE CAP
WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. HAVE PLACED
VCTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE DFW TAF STARTING AT 21Z
THURSDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  78  65  79  62 /   5  50  60  50  40
WACO, TX              58  79  64  77  60 /  10  60  80  50  50
PARIS, TX             56  77  61  78  61 /   5  50  60  50  50
DENTON, TX            58  77  64  77  59 /   5  50  60  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          58  78  64  76  60 /   5  50  60  50  40
DALLAS, TX            61  79  63  78  63 /   5  50  60  50  40
TERRELL, TX           58  78  65  78  63 /   5  50  60  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         58  78  64  78  62 /   5  50  70  50  50
TEMPLE, TX            62  80  64  78  61 /  10  60  80  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  77  62  76  58 /  10  60  70  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/15


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