Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 031752
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS...BUT MFVR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILTER
INTO THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15 KTS TODAY AND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND LEAD TO THE EARLY
MORNING STRATUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD...OUT OF OUR AREA...TOMORROW. ON THE HEELS OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE NEAR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY
PROVIDE LIFT OVER OUR AREA LATER ON IN THE WEEK...LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN WE BEGIN A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MOST OF THE REGION REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MOISTURE VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
RISE. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME
ADDED CLOUD COVER BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS THE BEST LIFT
WEST OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 60-70 POPS OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...TAPERING TO 30-40 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE AREA AND PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SUGGESTING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W IN AREAS WHERE LAKE LEVELS ARE STILL LOW
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE. HOPEFULLY THESE AREAS CAN SEE
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE OVER NORTH TEXAS. WE CONTINUE IN THIS PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FAIRLY PROMINENT AND MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS PATTERN OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE REGION WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTION...AND
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ANTICIPATING MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DRYLINE MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION EACH DAY BUT
IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY
STORMS MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR
CWA.

ISOLATED STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT
CAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP.
HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END AND LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DUE TO
PWAT VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL STRENGTHEN AND IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION BY THEN.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  63  82  63  79 /   0   5  10  10  50
WACO, TX              82  62  82  63  81 /   5  10  10  10  50
PARIS, TX             81  59  81  61  80 /   0   5   5  10  40
DENTON, TX            82  62  81  62  78 /   0   5  10  10  50
MCKINNEY, TX          82  61  81  61  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
DALLAS, TX            84  63  84  64  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
TERRELL, TX           83  61  84  63  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
CORSICANA, TX         81  61  83  63  79 /   5   5  10  10  50
TEMPLE, TX            82  62  83  63  79 /   5  10  10  10  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  61  81  61  78 /   5  10  10  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

81



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