Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 190926
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. ITS
TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL DRAG A DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...
BRINGING THE REGION A FINAL SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY...VEERING THE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD DISRUPT THE TYPICAL PRE-DRYLINE
MOISTURE FLUX AND REDUCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY...GREATLY LIMITING STORM CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY MCS...DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S REGIONWIDE...AND WITH LITTLE TIME FOR
MOISTURE RECOVERY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ADEQUATELY
RECOVERED FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES WILL BE BETTER IN
AREAS EAST OF I-35.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM BONHAM...TO
TERRELL...TO HEARNE. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES IN THESE
AREAS...DEW POINTS MAY HAVE SOARED TO NEAR 70F. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL
CLIMB OVER 2000J/KG. AT THIS POINT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ONLY
WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH DRAMATICALLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE PRIMARY
MITIGATING FACTORS FOR EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE
THE VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LIMITING THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STIFLING THOSE UPDRAFTS THAT ARE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE CAP.
ALTHOUGH POPS ARE VERY LOW...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED LINEARLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...
BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
LOUISIANA BORDER.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
/06Z TAFS/
IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE THAT TRANSITED NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING...REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD CONSTITUTE
A VFR FORECAST. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA SHOULD ERODE FROM THE WEST...CLEARING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AND WACO BY 10Z. MOISTURE IS A BIT RICHER IN THE WACO
VICINITY...AND BELIEVE SOME SCATTERED FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER
10Z...TEMPORARILY LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 3 MILES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO VEER STEADILY AFTER 14Z SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE DFW AND
WACO AREAS IN THE 20-21Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KTS BY 18Z...AND SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL TAF
SITES BY 21Z. SOME CROSSWIND IMPACTS MAY OCCUR AT DFW IF WIND
GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE 25KTS DURING THE 18-23Z TIME PERIOD.

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  52  73  52  74 /   5   5   0   5  10
WACO, TX              83  51  73  49  74 /  10   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             77  50  70  47  72 /  20  10   0   0  10
DENTON, TX            77  49  72  46  73 /   5   5   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          78  52  72  47  73 /  10   5   0   5  10
DALLAS, TX            81  53  73  52  74 /  10   5   0   5  10
TERRELL, TX           80  52  72  49  73 /  20   5   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         82  52  73  51  74 /  20   5   0   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  52  73  51  75 /  10   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  48  72  47  75 /   5   5   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.