Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 030406 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z MONDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 11-14Z SUNDAY IN THE WACO
AREA...AND MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED BY 03Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM CONVECTION THAT IS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
THE WACO AREA BY 03Z MONDAY...AND INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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