Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 172010
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT IS INCREASING OVER THE REGION. AS THIS LIFT INTERACTS
WITH AN AXIS OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY FROM ROUGHLY WICHITA FALLS TO
ABILENE AND SOUTH INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. WHILE STORM MOTION HAS BEEN
GENERALLY NORTHWARD...IT APPEARS THAT COLD POOLS ARE BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE BENEATH THE STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH MORE
EASTWARD MOTIONS NOTED WITH THE CELLS IN THE NW CWA NEAR
GRAHAM...AS WELL AS THE STORM SEGMENTS WEST AND ALSO SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO. AS THE COLD POOLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP... THE EASTWARD
MOTION WILL ACCELERATE. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND ALSO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS IS WHERE THE SMALL LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO TRACK NEAR. THERE IS A CHANCE A GAP IN THE ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STORM
CLUSTERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND
INTERCEPTING THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL JUST EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN FROM ANVIL BLOW OFF
BUT WHERE STORMS DO TRACK...WELL OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK MOSTLY EAST OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS NOT VERY HIGH
TODAY...WITH LOCAL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING GENERALLY ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF ENERGY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
IS MUCH HIGHER...RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...SO THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
THREAT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM FOR
GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE AND SPC WILL ASSESS
STORM TRENDS BEFORE DETERMINING WHETHER THE A NEW SEVERE WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST THIS EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
WORKED OVER FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODELS DO FORECAST A STRONG MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OUT INTO THE NW
GULF BY EARLY MORNING...AND GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS SEEMS LIKELY. OFTEN THE SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF AN MCS IS NOT FORECAST WELL BY COMPUTER MODELS...AND
THIS SUBSIDENCE CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
PARENT MCS. IN ADDITION...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALSO
EXITS TO OUR EAST...AND AS A RESULT THE FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO 700MB BECOMES VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. THIS FLOW WILL
INHIBIT A REPLENISHMENT OF QUALITY GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THESE
CONCERNS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED
AND UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEATING...AND A DRYLINE
WILL ALSO APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE WE DO EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AGAIN COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY HIGH...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS ADEQUATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AND WITH SOUTH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARM SUBSIDENT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S IN MOST AREAS OF
NORTH TEXAS UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND SOME TEMPS NEAR 90 MAY OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR LOWS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT IT APPEARS MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT FOR
GENERALLY THE WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER TEXAS FROM MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO
TIME THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OR DETERMINING WHEN/WHETHER
WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS LOW DUE TO THESE CONCERNS...BUT IT APPEARS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OFFER THE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF RAINFALL. THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 FOR
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MUGGY AND IN THE 60S. THE GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY WHICH SCOURS
OUT OUR MOISTURE...BUT THE ECMWF HAS NO SUCH FRONT AND CONTINUES
CHANCES OF RAIN. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY HAVE DIALED POPS DOWN TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE NEXT FRIDAY.

TR.92




&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GETTING ORGANIZED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AROUND THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW. CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH
THE OVERALL LINE OF STORMS SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST. WE HAVE
INDICATED VCTS BY 23Z AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO TS
FROM 00-03Z THIS EVENING. WE WILL ADJUST THE EXACT TIMING OF
CONVECTION WITH AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY BASED ON FUTURE RADAR
TRENDS. SIMILAR TIMING IS EXPECTED FOR THE WACO AREA...BUT WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON A TEMPO AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE MOST RECENT HI- RES
MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF
AREA TAF LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL. OTHERWISE...IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY 12Z TOMORROW...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  79  61  81  51 /  50  30  20   5   5
WACO, TX              62  78  60  86  49 /  50  30  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             63  75  60  80  48 /  60  30  30  20   5
DENTON, TX            60  79  58  80  48 /  60  30  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          62  78  60  79  49 /  60  30  30  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  81  63  82  53 /  50  30  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           63  79  61  81  52 /  60  30  30  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         63  79  62  83  51 /  60  30  30  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  79  61  89  51 /  60  30  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  80  56  81  48 /  40  30  20   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.