Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 020428 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS BUT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING MAY WORK INTO NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EACH MORNING WILL BEGIN COOL IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S...BUT WARMING
QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S EAST AND
80-85 DEGREES WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA SUPPRESSED OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WASH
OUT WITH S/SE WINDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10-15
MPH SATURDAY AND 15-20 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY BY SUNDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY PATTERN-WISE AND WITH MOISTURE
RECOVERY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SURFACE
LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A WARMING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OR CAP OVER NORTH TEXAS.
THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS A SHARPENING
SURFACE DRYLINE OVER THAT REGION PROVIDES A SURFACE FOCUS FOR A
FEW STORMS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MEAN MOTION WITH CONVECTION OUT WEST
WILL BE NNE AND FOLLOW GENERALLY THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. A BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA...THOUGH I DID HOLD A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME WESTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS BEING PROGGED CLOSELY BY MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NNE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 850MB DEW PTS LOOK TO RISE TO 12 DEG/C WITH
PWAT VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.50-1.75 INCHES...OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-35 WHERE FORCING WILL BE
STRONGER AND THE CAP LIKELY WEAKER DUE TO LIFT AND MOISTENING OF
THE MID LEVELS. WITH THE STRONG SSW FLOW OVERHEAD...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRESENT ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND THE ABOVE NORMAL WATER CONTENT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION OF MOST OF THE AREA AND SOME MOIST ADIABATIC
TRAITS OF LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THIS FIRST
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.

THE LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE BROAD WESTERN U.S
TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SW U.S STATES...AS WELL AS WITH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP AND INSTABILITY...INCLUDING THE STRENGTH OF
THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS IS UNDERSTANDABLE AND A NORMAL
OCCURRENCE WITH CUT OFF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WITH
UNCERTAINTIES ON UPSTREAM KICKER SYSTEMS.

WE REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LOWER CHANCE POPS...VERSUS MORE AGGRESSIVE CHANCES
FROM THE EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS. LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS WILL
LIKELY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THE NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY. HOW MID
WEEK CONVECTION AFFECTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE ALONG
WITH ANY MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY PRESENT THEMSELVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH REGARD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT THESE
UNCERTAINTIES TO IRON THEMSELVES OUT MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE FOR MID SPRING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  82  60  81  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              55  82  57  80  61 /   0   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             53  78  55  79  59 /  10  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  81  59  80  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  81  58  80  60 /  10  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  83  61  80  63 /  10  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           57  80  59  80  60 /  10  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         58  81  59  80  61 /  10  10  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  82  57  81  61 /   0   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  83  57  82  61 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.