Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 260443 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 23-03Z PERIOD.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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