Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 041201
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE DURATION OF MVFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED MORE OR LESS OVER THE INTERSTATE 35
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS MAY BOUNCE
AROUND BETWEEN BROKEN AND SCATTERED THIS MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER IN THE 1500 TO
2500 FT AGL LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 17Z. HAVE CIGS
IMPROVING FROM 1500 FT TO 2500 FT LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
BECOMING VFR IN ALTITUDE AFTER 17Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR SMALL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN
PLACE BASED ON EARLY MORNING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND THE
STRATUS IN PLACE OVER AREA TAF SITES. DUE TO EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS LIKELY ONLY A VERY WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE...AND SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING AND SOME WEAK LIFT OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING
BECAUSE ANY DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH SOME VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOME WEAK
LIFT WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS NOT OBVIOUS WHAT THAT SOURCE OF
LIFT WOULD BE AT THIS TIME. FOR THESE REASONS...MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL BE WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY SIGNS OF CONVECTION
INITIATION.

TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE...AND IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THIS TO MORE OR LESS HAPPEN
EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WENT AHEAD AND
REINTRODUCED MVFR STRATUS OVER AREA TAF SITES AFTER 10Z FOR THE
DFW AREA...AND AFTER 08Z FOR THE WACO AREA.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

IT IS A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR BUT CHANGES ARE
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TODAY. THE REGION IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
ONSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HI-RES MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE
NIGHT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE TODAY
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY ATMOSPHERE STILL IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL TEND TO WORK
AGAINST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT 20
PERCENT. IF RAIN DOES DEVELOP... IT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TREKS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN CURVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE AREAS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE REGION AND TWO AXES OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. ONE WILL
OCCUR EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...MAINLY IN THE EAST TEXAS AREA...AND
THE OTHER WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN BOTH OF
THESE AREAS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR THIS REASON. WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE BEST LIFT FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ARE STILL
DECENT AND WILL MAINTAIN 60-70 POPS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IS ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DALLAS TO PARIS
WHERE RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS
TIME LOOKS LOW BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THE CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PREVAILS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY CAPPED. THE DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN WEST TEXAS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY ON THE DRYLINE WHILE IT STAYS WELL
WEST OF THE REGION BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE
STORMS WILL REACH OUR REGION. INSTEAD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT AS PWATS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AGAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ON THESE DAYS BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ON THE
LOWER END. THE CAP DOES STRENGTHEN SOME ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY BE
MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHOUT A STRONGER
FORCING MECHANISM...WHICH IS ABSENT AT THIS TIME.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF NORTH TEXAS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
DAYS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  65  81  66  81 /  20  20  60  70  50
WACO, TX              82  61  80  67  81 /  20  20  60  50  40
PARIS, TX             81  60  78  63  78 /  20  30  60  60  50
DENTON, TX            81  59  80  66  80 /  20  20  60  70  50
MCKINNEY, TX          80  60  78  65  79 /  20  30  60  70  50
DALLAS, TX            82  66  81  66  81 /  20  20  60  70  50
TERRELL, TX           82  62  78  65  80 /  20  30  60  60  50
CORSICANA, TX         81  62  79  66  81 /  20  30  60  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            83  62  82  66  82 /  20  20  60  50  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  61  79  65  81 /  20  20  60  70  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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