Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020844
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS BEFORE
THE RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY
STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODEL RUNS FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. WILL
PREVAIL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE-
RICH AIR INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG AT TIMES
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP...BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END
AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CAPE ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH
PWAT VALUES STILL AVERAGING +2SD...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST BUT IT
MAY BREAK DOWN TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1128 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS BUT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING MAY WORK INTO NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  60  81  63  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              83  56  82  62  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             78  58  79  59  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79  59  81  61  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  81  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80  61  83  63  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           82  58  81  62  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  82  61  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  56  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  57  83  60  80 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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