Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...AND TIMING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
ACROSS THE DFW AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN IF THE
IFR CIGS LIFT NORTHEAST...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DO SO
SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE
EAST...SO ANTICIPATE DFW AREA AIRPORTS REMAINING STORM FREE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT WEST...AND IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO THREATEN THE DFW
AREA...IT SHOULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE PLENTY OF TIME
FOR A HEADS UP FOR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. WACO IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE DFW AREA...HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN GENERAL ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE KACT TAF.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SPREADS LIFT OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF WATER VAPOR EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FOR LATE APRIL...LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DFW AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY AND MOVE OVER AREA AIRPORTS AT THAT TIME. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN STORMS TOMORROW...THE TIMING
OF THOSE STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IN A GENERAL SENSE...THE
EARLIER THAT STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE LESS OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THE STORMS WILL POSE. AT THIS TIME SIMPLY MENTIONED
VICINITY THUNDER AT ALL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL REFINE THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  40  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/79


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.