Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 301736
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
NO REAL CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS THE METROPLEX OR
WACO TAF SITE. AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNDOWN WITH VARIABLE WINDS /THOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE/ CONTINUING ACROSS THE METROPLEX WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT WACO.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS A SUBTLE BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT THE WACO
TAF SITE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.


15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN TO RAISE HIGHS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. FULL SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED MORNING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE PLEASANT RIGHT
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND AND RESULT IN TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS ORGANIZE BY SATURDAY AND INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT
STRATUS...LOW TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH NIGHT...AND ONLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
WILL PLATEAU OUT AROUND 80 FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL COUNTER BALANCE THE
EFFECTS OF SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO FEATURE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONTINENT BY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST
TEXAS MONDAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CLIP THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS. ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MORE CONVECTION WILL FIRE...THIS TIME FARTHER EAST BUT
STILL GENERALLY WEST OF THE CWA. STRONGER WEST TO EAST MID LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MEANS THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS PRETTY
FAR NORTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED FORCING OVER
THE CWA. IN ADDITION THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MEANS THE DRY
LINE WILL PROBABLY STAY TOO FAR TO THE WEST AND TOO LOOSELY
ORGANIZED TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE UNCAPPED WITH LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE EXPECT COVERAGE
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN
ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED FORCING ON THURSDAY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN
LOWER AND WILL DIAL POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS PATTERN WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME
THREAT. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WIND SHEAR LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE
DUE TO WELL ORGANIZED VEERING WIND PROFILES...BUT THE LIMITING
FACTOR WOULD PROBABLY BE INSTABILITY. CAPE FORECASTS FROM THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW 1000-2000 J/KG...BUT PROFILES ARE
MORE SUGGESTIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE DUE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE 6-7 DEG/KM RANGE. STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER SPREAD THE
REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
INSTABILITY...BUT BY THIS TIME WIND SHEAR BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. SO
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
NO SIGN THAT THIS THREAT WILL BE WELL ORGANIZED OR PARTICULARLY
NOTEWORTHY FOR EARLY MAY.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  55  80  57  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              80  51  80  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             79  53  78  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            80  52  79  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          80  51  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81  56  82  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           80  54  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         80  54  80  58  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            80  51  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  51  80  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

15/91


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