Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 240233
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRETTY QUIET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. A FEW STORMS THAT MANAGED TO GET GOING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKENED PRETTY QUICKLY BEFORE SUNSET. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER YOUNG COUNTY LATE
AFTERNOON WAS A SUPERCELL FOR A WHILE BUT ALSO RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS
IT MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL JACK COUNTY BY 00Z.

RADAR AT 930 PM...CONTINUED TO SHOWER A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RETURN EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF ABILENE TO GREENVILLE. MINERAL
WELLS DID REPORT 10SM -RA WHEN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVED OVER
THEM. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE CEILING HEIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS...WHICH ALL HAVE EAST WINDS RIGHT
NOW...BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN MVFR AROUND 1700FT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SKIES HAVE THINNED A BIT AND VFR CIGS PREVAIL. WILL
PREVAIL MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME
IMPACTS TO ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCSH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION AS SOME INCREASING ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA. MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE AROUND MIDDAY SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS ONGOING...BUT HAVE PUSHED IT BACK A COUPLE OF
HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TOMORROW AND WILL REFINE
THE TIMING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  30  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/58



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.