Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 051930
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PIVOTING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHERN PLAINS RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF CONVECTION FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL
AS ANOTHER BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION OVER EAST
TEXAS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WE EXPECT THE WESTERN
CONVECTION TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WE HAVE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT
WILL TAP INTO HIGH THETA-E AIR RIDING NORTH ON A 30-40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET...THUS SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO...ECHO TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED HEAVY RUNOFF THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A LULL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION AT
NIGHT AND DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTHWARD ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
ACTUALLY...LOW LEVEL THETA-E...SFC TO 850MB...WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
FORMING AND MOVING OFF A DRYLINE AND INTO THE WESTERN CWA...AND A
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
PWATS CLIMB ABOVE THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION FOR EARLY MAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND SHUNT THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONAL THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 4 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
SPORADIC MVFR CIGS OCCURRED THIS MORNING...BUT GENERALLY THESE
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK NEAR 035 TO 050.
SOME SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WEST AND EAST OF TAF SITES
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF VCTS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN CHANCES
LOOK A LITTLE BETTER AS UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. CANT RULE OUT
SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR
FOR UPDATES.

BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
TEND TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER 4Z AND THE PERIOD
FROM 4Z TO 9Z IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED BY THE HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RAP
AS THE BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS AT METROPLEX TAF SITES.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL
THROUGH WED MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SE NEAR 15KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM INFLUENCES.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  82  68  82  68 /  60  20  20  20  30
WACO, TX              66  83  69  82  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             64  79  65  80  67 /  60  30  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            65  81  67  81  68 /  70  20  30  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          65  79  67  81  68 /  50  20  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            66  81  68  82  69 /  50  20  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           66  80  68  82  68 /  50  30  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         66  81  68  82  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            66  83  69  82  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  82  67  81  67 /  70  20  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/75



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