Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250323
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1023 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...EXPECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS TO HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS
FALLING BELOW 500 FEET AND AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 09-11Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOR TODAY...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE/DISCUSSION...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW. MOST OF THE DETAILS REGARDING THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE STILL VALID
FROM THE LATE MORNING DISCUSSION.

CHANGES FROM LATE THIS MORNING: A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY EAST OF WEATHERFORD...THROUGH 7
PM CDT.

CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EAST. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...WITH STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION MORE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...BUT WAS NOT MOVING MUCH AS OF 2 PM.

WHEREVER SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST...SO THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN TORNADOES...SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS
OCCURS AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST AWAY FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY.
WITH MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE DRYLINE...EXPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DRYLINE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CWA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO ONLY WENT
WITH A MENTION OF 30 POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THIS FORECAST.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE...BUT THE AMOUNT
OF THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR FREE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF STORMS WERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN PLACE TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER...THE
MORNING CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...IF IT IS OVER
NORTH TEXAS...OR TO OUR EAST...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. IF THE
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE WEST...MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME SIMPLY LEFT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EASTWARD TRACK IS RESOLVED BETTER BY FORECAST GUIDANCE.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN
PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  86  61  87  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              63  87  61  86  65 /  60   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             63  84  58  85  58 /  50   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  10   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          62  85  58  86  61 /  20   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            62  88  63  88  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           63  87  60  86  63 /  40   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  63  86  64 /  70   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            63  89  63  86  65 /  60   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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